The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) is warning of a potentially powerful El Niño event, with projections indicating an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño and a 97% probability that its effects could extend into early 2027.
The forecast has raised concerns over the October–December short-rains season, with authorities and humanitarian agencies preparing for the possibility of intense rainfall, flooding and other climate-related hazards.
The El Niño conditions are associated with warming in the Pacific Ocean and could bring above-normal rainfall to parts of Kenya. [Sources: Kenya Times – KMD El Niño Forecast · Citizen Digital]
18 Counties Identified as High Risk
Authorities have identified 18 counties as particularly vulnerable to the anticipated heavy rains.
The areas include major urban centres such as Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu, as well as counties that have historically experienced significant flood risks, including Tana River, Kilifi, Garissa and Wajir. [Sources: Kilimonews · Standard Media]
The designation reflects concerns that heavy rainfall could overwhelm drainage systems, rivers and other infrastructure, particularly in densely populated urban areas and low-lying regions.
Floods and Landslides Among Major Threats
The expected rains could bring a range of hazards, including flash floods, riverine flooding and landslides.
Parts of the Rift Valley are particularly vulnerable to mudslides and landslides during periods of intense rainfall, while communities living along rivers and in flood-prone areas face the risk of displacement and damage to homes, roads and other infrastructure.
Heavy rainfall can also increase the risk of waterborne diseases when floodwaters contaminate drinking-water sources and sanitation systems.
The most significant rainfall increases are expected from October 2026, with the effects potentially continuing into early 2027. [Sources: ReliefWeb – Eastern Africa El Niño Preparedness Alert · Kilimonews]
Authorities Move to Clear Drainage Systems
With the forecast pointing to potentially heavy rainfall, UN agencies and national disaster-response teams are urging authorities to take preventive measures before the rains intensify.
One of the key priorities is clearing blocked drainage systems, waterways and urban sewers to improve the movement of stormwater and reduce the risk of flooding.
In Nairobi, county teams and environmental workers, including the "Green Army," have been deployed to clear blocked drainage channels, remove silt from riverbeds and open up waterways ahead of the expected rains. [Sources: Capital FM Africa · Nairobi Leo]
Government Activates Emergency Preparedness Measures
The government has also activated emergency-response mechanisms to prepare for potential flooding and other climate-related emergencies.
Response teams are expected to monitor vulnerable locations, pre-position essential resources and coordinate interventions in areas likely to be affected by heavy rainfall. [Source: Standard Media]
Early preparation is particularly important in areas where previous floods have caused loss of life, displacement and extensive damage to infrastructure.
Communities Urged to Prepare Early
The El Niño warning underscores the importance of early preparedness by households, businesses and local authorities.
Residents in flood-prone areas are encouraged to remain alert to official weather updates and take precautions before heavy rainfall begins. Clearing drainage around homes and businesses, avoiding blocked waterways and identifying safe evacuation routes can help reduce risks.
For county governments, the focus will be on strengthening drainage infrastructure, maintaining emergency response capacity and ensuring that vulnerable communities can receive timely warnings and assistance.
Preparing for a Potentially Difficult Rainy Season
The projected El Niño conditions could provide much-needed water in some parts of the country, but exceptionally heavy rainfall could also create serious humanitarian and economic challenges.
With the possibility of above-normal October–December rains and effects extending into early 2027, the effectiveness of Kenya's preparedness measures will be critical.
The early focus on drainage clearance, emergency planning and coordination between national and county governments reflects an effort to reduce the impact of flooding before the heaviest rains arrive.
Sources: Kenya Meteorological Department · Kenya Times – KMD El Niño Forecast · Citizen Digital · Kilimonews · Capital FM Africa · Nairobi Leo · Standard Media · ReliefWeb
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